Metal industry in Colorado: forecasts to the year 2002. 55 pages. Digital PDF download. OF-85-05D
Excerpted from the Executive Summary:
Forecasts are presented for seven metals including gold, silver, lead, zinc, copper, molybdenum, and uranium. Using production as the basis, projections of employment, wages and the amount of local purchases are also included. Trend analysis is used as the forecasting method. It consists of fitting a curve to the historical data and then using the curve to forecast future values. This method provides reasonable projections based on project goals, time, and funding constraints.
Forecasts are usually incorrect and a method of using actual data as it becomes available each year to correct the forecast is always needed. A method is included to modify the forecast as data becomes available to measure the error. There are two points where errors are foreseeable. The forecast of the state total will be one source of errors and the ratios used to divide the total to the county level will be the other. The errors can be adjusted by changing the equation of the curve, and the ratios.